CryptoVantage / BITCOIN INTELLIGENCE
Bitcoin sideways breakout probability
Compare three possible first-break outcomes, then check what actually happened.
What is the prediction target?
When sideways-market conditions are valid, V2 and V3 estimate the probabilities of the first upward breakout, first downward breakout or no qualifying breakout during the following hour. Each version produces three mutually exclusive outcomes whose probabilities sum to one.
Is this a forecast of the one-hour closing direction?
No. First-break direction and net closing return are different outcomes. Price can first break upward and later close below the starting price. A first-break forecast must be evaluated against its own recorded outcome, rather than retroactively relabeled as a closing-return prediction.
Why might there be no signal?
The system may not have qualifying sideways conditions, sufficient history or fresh validated inputs. CryptoVantage distinguishes no valid estimate from no breakout. It does not invent probabilities or substitute a default 50% estimate when the model cannot produce a valid result.
How do V2 and V3 help with review?
Both versions are shown side by side at the original update time, every 30 minutes. The record includes the actual up, down or no-breakout outcome when settled. An opposite-direction breakout remains visible as an opposite outcome. Overall model improvements do not guarantee that any individual strong directional forecast will be correct.
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